Global Trends 2030

A Snapshot of the Global Trends 2030 Report

Dan Twining & Ash Jain Moderated – What is the impact of the rise of the rest on the liberal international order: End of the Western world?

• Overview: What Fate for Liberal Order in a Post-Western World?
• The World in 2030: Are we on the path to convergence or divergence?
• The Rise of the Rest; Decline of the West?
• The Rise of the Rest and the Return of Spheres of Influence
• To Sustain a U.S.-Led Liberal Order, Incorporate the Global Swing States
• From the Great Divergence in Global Affairs to the Great Convergence: Can America Adapt? A View from Australia
• Down But Not Out: Reports of the West’s Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
• China’s Challenge to the Liberal Order, India’s Attraction to It, and the Possibilities for Western Revitalization in Light of the Global Embrace of Democratic Norms
• “India Wants to Modify the Present World Order But Never to Overthrow It”
• The Future of American Power = The Future of Liberal Order?
• The Emerging “Contra-Polar” World
• Leadership in International Relations Requires Followership – And Few Countries are Prepared to Follow the Leaders of the Rising Rest
• A More Global NATO to Anchor Liberal Order in a Less Western World?
• The Central Challenge to the Western Liberal Order is the Rise of the Post-Colonial Superpowers (with American Support)
• Why the Liberal Order Will Survive in a Post-Western World
• The “Rise of the Rest” in the Tales of Two Relationships
• Two Rising Giants, Two Narratives on Sovereignty and Regional Hegemony
• The Link Between Rising Powers’ Domestic Regime Type and Liberal International Order
• Crunch Time for China?
• Rising Powers and a New Emerging Order
• Flows of Information will be as Important as Flows of Power in Shaping the Emerging Global Order
• The Indian Ocean Region and the Challenges of Order-Building in a Post-Unipolar, Post-Western World
• 2030: A World Transformed, with America at the Center
• The “Rise and Fall” Rhetoric is No Longer Relevant; The Weakening of Liberal Order Does Not Mean the Chinese System Has Strengthened
• Stuck between the “Rest” and the “West”: Turkey at the Crossroads
• The Collapse of Authoritarianism in China and Russia
• Parallel Institutions as a Challenge to the Liberal Order
• Pathways for Asian Security Order in 2030
• The Liberal Order and the Chinese Public
• Power Shift: How the West Can Adapt and Thrive in an Asian Century
• A Japanese Perspective on the Future of Liberal Order
• Liberal Democracy is Here to Stay, Thank You—But it Needs to be Tended and Adapted
• The International Order in the Age of “China versus the Rest”
• The Global Leadership Deficit
• Why the World Needs America
• Understanding China in A Profound Sense: A View from Beijing
• With the Rise of the Rest, Not Only the Balance of Power But the Balance of Ideas Will be Decisive
• West vs. Rest
• The Good and Bad News About the Parallel Rise of China and India: A Japanese Perspective
• The Global Power Structure, Norms and the Future of the Liberal International Order
• Democratic Change in Russia and China and the Liberal International Order

Bill Burke-White Moderated – What Will be the Shape of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in 2030? 

• The Shape of the Security Council in 2030
• A Path to Security Council Reform?
• Winning the 21st Century

Thomas Mahnken Moderated – Will China’s economic growth stall out?  What will be the impact on the global economy?

• Assumptions about the Chinese Economy: High Growth, Leveling Off, or Downturn?
• Regionalism and Chinese Economic Growth

Zachary Riskind – Can China Avoid the “Middle Income Trap” without Political Reform?

Peter Feaver Moderated with Ionut Popescu & Seth Cantey – What Will be the US Role in a Multipolar International System?

• What if American Power Diverges Sharply from the Current Trajectory?
• Is America’s Decline Really Inevitable?
• What Problems Would Be Easier to Solve if the United States Declines?
• Why we shouldn’t assume the future will be all Counterinsurgency (COIN)
• Looking Ahead: America’s Role in the Middle East
• Inflection Points and the Difficulty of Scenario Planning
• The Regionalization of the Liberal World Order
• America’s Subversive Soft Power

Jackie Newmyer Deal Moderated – How will the security environment of 2030 be affected by the proliferation of advanced technologies to a variety of smaller regional actors and even non-state actors?

• Trends in the Security Environment
• Russia’s Perspective on the Future Security Environment
• Japan’s Perspective on the Future Security Environment
• Future Security Environment Challenges for the US Air Force and the US Navy
• Implications of Global Trends for Seaborne Power Projection
• Regional Nuclear Powers in the Future Security Environment
• More on Regional Nuclear Powers in the Future Security Environment
• The RMA with Chinese Characteristics in the Future Security Environment
• More on China’s Perspective on the Future Security Environment
• Implications of Future Security Environment Trends for US Ground Forces
• The Role of Nuclear Weapons in the Future Security Environment
• Nuclear Weapons and Precision Strike in the Future

Steve Weber Moderated – How Will Employment Change with the Expansion of New Technologies—like Robotics—in Manufacturing?  Will We See a New Unemployable Underclass?

• How Will Employment Change with the Expansion of New Technologies—like Robotics—in Manufacturing? Will We See a New Unemployable Underclass?

Robert O. Moderated – Future trajectories of migration and issues policy makers will face.

• Future Trajectories of Migration and Issues Policy Makers Will Face – Migration and Europe
• Could Western Europe Cope with New Waves of Muslim Immigration?
• Mega-cities and Migrants
• Is There any Prospect for Global Governance of Migration?

Drew Erdmann Moderated – Urbanization Dynamics and Challenges

• Urbanization and its Challenges: Introduction to the Week of July 15-21 discussion
• Urban World: Cities and the Rise of the Consuming Class
• Mapping the World’s Shifting Economic Center of Gravity Toward Asia
• Urbanization and the Global Climate Dilemma
• Urbanization and American National Security
• The City as a System: Future Conflict and Urban Resilience
• Urbanization’s National Security Implications
• Urbanization, Security and Resiliency
• Military Operations as Urban Planning
• Fighting in the New World: What Urbanization Means for Military Planners
• Urbanization’s National Security Implications – Part 2
• Urban Growth, Inequality, and Telecommuting
• Urbanization as Opportunity
• Citizens of Cities Not Nations – Implications of an Urban World for Government
• Urbanization’s Implications for Governance
• Cities and the Next Era of Latin American Progress
• Urbanization and the World in 2030: Concluding Reflections on the NIC Blog for the Week of July 15-21

William Inboden Moderated – American Decline

• This Week: Exploring the Question of American Decline
• The Austro-Hungarian Legacy: Creative Citizens Need Innovative Governance
• American Decline: Is Perception Always Reality?
• Re-Thinking World Power, from Shanghai to Silicon Valley
• The First Five Centuries
• Will America Thrive?
• Discretionary Decline
• America in Decline: Through the Looking Glass
• Looking Backward, Planning Forward
• The Decline of American Education
• A Demographic Morning in America
• Prediction and the Elusive Elements of Power Decline
• Catching the Winds of Power
• The Fiscal Politics of Decline
• Global Governance and the Paradox of US Decline
• Divisions of Decline: Family Structure and Social Capital
• Concluding Reflections on American Decline

Richard Cincotta Moderated – Will Aging Cripple the West?  Will It Cripple China’s Development?

• The Week Ahead: Population Aging to 2030
• Population Aging: a Demographic and Geographic Overview
• Population Aging: More Security or Less?
• China and the Challenge of Premature Aging
• The Sun Has Yet to Set on China
• Population Aging and the Welfare State in Europe
• Population Aging and the Future of NATO
• The Beginning of History: Advanced Aging and the Liberalness of Democracies
• The Strategic Implications of Japan’s Demographic Decline
• A Demographic Sketch of a Reunified Korea in 2030
• The Impact of Immigration on the Populations of the Developed World and their Ethnic Composition
• The Ethnic Future of Western Europe to 2030
• Population Aging to 2030: End of a Week

Ralph Espach is Moderated – Brazil’s Future Role in the International System

• Brazil on the Rise?
• Brazil’s Social and Industrial Policies: The Korean Path, or the Venezuelan Cliff?
• Brazil as a World Power Beyond 2030: Geographic, Economic and Military Dimensions

Allan Dafoe Moderated – Will the Long Peace Persist?

• Will the Long Peace Persist?
• The Arc of War
• The Hazards of Forecasting
• World War III?
• International Economic Institutions and Great Power Peace
• Doubting the Decline of Great Power War Thesis
• Great Power War to 2030
• The Long Peace: Systematic Trends and Unknown Unknowns
• A short Comment on the Long Peace – Part 1
• Developmental Peace as a Piece of the Long Peace – Part 2
• War and Peace Among the Rest – Part 3
• The Not So Long Peace?

Richard Engel (from the National Intelligence Council) Posted – Climate Change 2030: More Extreme Weather

Howard Passell Moderated – Will Mega-Cities be a Cauldron for Revolution or Be an Engine for Technological Revolutions?

• Week Schedule and Author Bios for Mega-Cities
• Will Mega-Cities be a Cauldron for Revolution or an Engine for Technological Revolutions?
• Can We Predict which Mega-Cities are Most Vulnerable to Epidemics?
• The Wealth and Power Nexus: Will Mega-Cities Revolutionize Global Governance?
• Urban Fragility and Global Mega-Cities
• Alpha-Cities, Mega-Slums and Tomorrow’s Revolutions
• Urbanization and Climate Change

Cung Vu Moderated – Will Shale Gas Give a Second Burst to US Manufacturing? 

• Will Shale Gas Give a Second Burst to US Manufacturing?