Our assumptions about the future security environment depend heavily on assumptions about the growth of the Chinese economy. Not too long ago, the orthodox view was that China’s high rate of growth would continue into the future. This view was particularly pronounced in the wake of the 2008-09 global recession. More recently, there has been a growing body of evidence and opinion to the effect that the Chinese economy is slowing down. This, in turn, could be the prelude to China assuming a more “normal” rate of growth, or even to a downturn in the Chinese economy.
It seems to me that each one of these scenarios has security implications, both positive and negative. So which scenario is most likely? And what are its implications?