Welcome to the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030 Blog, “Population Aging to 2030”, due to be posted from July 30-Aug 3, 2012. Two thematic questions motivate this blog:
- Will population aging, by 2030, contribute to undermine, rearrange or unravel the current international political and economic order?
- How will China’s rapid aging affect its position in that order by 2030?
To produce this blog, a set of political demographers, economic demographers, political scientists and historians, all of whom have been engaged in population-related research, have been asked to submit brief essays on issues that are germane to these questions. Over the next week, sets of these essays will be posted on the GT2030 blog, grouped by themes:
- Monday, July 30: Global population aging to 2030 (2 essays); first, a demographic and geographic overview (R. Cincotta); second, a global overview of aging-related security issues (J. Goldstone).
- Tuesday, July 31: China’s aging trend (2 essays); the first, on the implications of China’s aging trajectory (R. Jackson); the second on the runtime of China’s rise (J.D. Sciubba).
- Wednesday, Aug. 1: Advanced aging in Europe (3 essays); the first, on the economic dynamics of aging in European welfare states (R. Lee & A. Mason), the second, on implications of European population aging on NATO (M. Haas); third, on the staying power of Europe’s aging liberal regimes (R. Cincotta).
- Thursday, Aug. 2: Advanced aging in Japan and S. Korea (2 essays); the first, on aging’s influence on Japan’s defense readiness and posture (T. Yoshihara); the second, on demographic considerations around reunification on the Korean Peninsula (E.H. Stephen).
- Friday, Aug. 3: Immigration and ethnic change in aging Europe (2 essays); the first, an overview of immigration to Europe and its impacts on ethnic composition (D.A. Coleman); the second, a view of the EU ethnic future (E. Kaufmann).
Richard Cincotta & Jonathan Potton
The Stimson Center, Washington, DC