A Snapshot of the Global Trends 2030 Report
Dan Twining & Ash Jain Moderated – What is the impact of the rise of the rest on the liberal international order: End of the Western world?
- Overview: What Fate for Liberal Order in a Post-Western World?
- The World in 2030: Are we on the path to convergence or divergence?
- The Rise of the Rest; Decline of the West?
- The Rise of the Rest and the Return of Spheres of Influence
- To Sustain a U.S.-Led Liberal Order, Incorporate the Global Swing States
- From the Great Divergence in Global Affairs to the Great Convergence: Can America Adapt? A View from Australia
- Down But Not Out: Reports of the West’s Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
- China’s Challenge to the Liberal Order, India’s Attraction to It, and the Possibilities for Western Revitalization in Light of the Global Embrace of Democratic Norms
- “India Wants to Modify the Present World Order But Never to Overthrow It”
- The Future of American Power = The Future of Liberal Order?
- The Emerging “Contra-Polar” World
- Leadership in International Relations Requires Followership – And Few Countries are Prepared to Follow the Leaders of the Rising Rest
- A More Global NATO to Anchor Liberal Order in a Less Western World?
- The Central Challenge to the Western Liberal Order is the Rise of the Post-Colonial Superpowers (with American Support)
- Why the Liberal Order Will Survive in a Post-Western World
- The “Rise of the Rest” in the Tales of Two Relationships
- Two Rising Giants, Two Narratives on Sovereignty and Regional Hegemony
- The Link Between Rising Powers’ Domestic Regime Type and Liberal International Order
- Crunch Time for China?
- Rising Powers and a New Emerging Order
- Flows of Information will be as Important as Flows of Power in Shaping the Emerging Global Order
- The Indian Ocean Region and the Challenges of Order-Building in a Post-Unipolar, Post-Western World
- 2030: A World Transformed, with America at the Center
- The “Rise and Fall” Rhetoric is No Longer Relevant; The Weakening of Liberal Order Does Not Mean the Chinese System Has Strengthened
- Stuck between the “Rest” and the “West”: Turkey at the Crossroads
- The Collapse of Authoritarianism in China and Russia
- Parallel Institutions as a Challenge to the Liberal Order
- Pathways for Asian Security Order in 2030
- The Liberal Order and the Chinese Public
- Power Shift: How the West Can Adapt and Thrive in an Asian Century
- A Japanese Perspective on the Future of Liberal Order
- Liberal Democracy is Here to Stay, Thank You—But it Needs to be Tended and Adapted
- The International Order in the Age of “China versus the Rest”
- The Global Leadership Deficit
- Why the World Needs America
- Understanding China in A Profound Sense: A View from Beijing
- With the Rise of the Rest, Not Only the Balance of Power But the Balance of Ideas Will be Decisive
- West vs. Rest
- The Good and Bad News About the Parallel Rise of China and India: A Japanese Perspective
- The Global Power Structure, Norms and the Future of the Liberal International Order
- Democratic Change in Russia and China and the Liberal International Order
Bill Burke-White Moderated – What Will be the Shape of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in 2030?
- The Shape of the Security Council in 2030
- A Path to Security Council Reform?
- Winning the 21st Century
Thomas Mahnken Moderated – Will China’s economic growth stall out? What will be the impact on the global economy?
- Assumptions about the Chinese Economy: High Growth, Leveling Off, or Downturn?
- Regionalism and Chinese Economic Growth
Zachary Riskind – Can China Avoid the “Middle Income Trap” without Political Reform?
Peter Feaver Moderated with Ionut Popescu & Seth Cantey – What Will be the US Role in a Multipolar International System?
- What if American Power Diverges Sharply from the Current Trajectory?
- Is America’s Decline Really Inevitable?
- What Problems Would Be Easier to Solve if the United States Declines?
- Why we shouldn’t assume the future will be all Counterinsurgency (COIN)
- Looking Ahead: America’s Role in the Middle East
- Inflection Points and the Difficulty of Scenario Planning
- The Regionalization of the Liberal World Order
- America’s Subversive Soft Power
Jackie Newmyer Deal Moderated – How will the security environment of 2030 be affected by the proliferation of advanced technologies to a variety of smaller regional actors and even non-state actors?
- Trends in the Security Environment
- Russia’s Perspective on the Future Security Environment
- Japan’s Perspective on the Future Security Environment
- Future Security Environment Challenges for the US Air Force and the US Navy
- Implications of Global Trends for Seaborne Power Projection
- Regional Nuclear Powers in the Future Security Environment
- More on Regional Nuclear Powers in the Future Security Environment
- The RMA with Chinese Characteristics in the Future Security Environment
- More on China’s Perspective on the Future Security Environment
- Implications of Future Security Environment Trends for US Ground Forces
- The Role of Nuclear Weapons in the Future Security Environment
- Nuclear Weapons and Precision Strike in the Future
Steve Weber Moderated – How Will Employment Change with the Expansion of New Technologies—like Robotics—in Manufacturing? Will We See a New Unemployable Underclass?
- How Will Employment Change with the Expansion of New Technologies—like Robotics—in Manufacturing? Will We See a New Unemployable Underclass?
Robert O. Moderated – Future trajectories of migration and issues policy makers will face.
- Future Trajectories of Migration and Issues Policy Makers Will Face – Migration and Europe
- Could Western Europe Cope with New Waves of Muslim Immigration?
- Mega-cities and Migrants
- Is There any Prospect for Global Governance of Migration?
Drew Erdmann Moderated – Urbanization Dynamics and Challenges
- Urbanization and its Challenges: Introduction to the Week of July 15-21 discussion
- Urban World: Cities and the Rise of the Consuming Class
- Mapping the World’s Shifting Economic Center of Gravity Toward Asia
- Urbanization and the Global Climate Dilemma
- Urbanization and American National Security
- The City as a System: Future Conflict and Urban Resilience
- Urbanization’s National Security Implications
- Urbanization, Security and Resiliency
- Military Operations as Urban Planning
- Fighting in the New World: What Urbanization Means for Military Planners
- Urbanization’s National Security Implications – Part 2
- Urban Growth, Inequality, and Telecommuting
- Urbanization as Opportunity
- Citizens of Cities Not Nations – Implications of an Urban World for Government
- Urbanization’s Implications for Governance
- Cities and the Next Era of Latin American Progress
- Urbanization and the World in 2030: Concluding Reflections on the NIC Blog for the Week of July 15-21
William Inboden Moderated – American Decline
- This Week: Exploring the Question of American Decline
- The Austro-Hungarian Legacy: Creative Citizens Need Innovative Governance
- American Decline: Is Perception Always Reality?
- Re-Thinking World Power, from Shanghai to Silicon Valley
- The First Five Centuries
- Will America Thrive?
- Discretionary Decline
- America in Decline: Through the Looking Glass
- Looking Backward, Planning Forward
- The Decline of American Education
- A Demographic Morning in America
- Prediction and the Elusive Elements of Power Decline
- Catching the Winds of Power
- The Fiscal Politics of Decline
- Global Governance and the Paradox of US Decline
- Divisions of Decline: Family Structure and Social Capital
- Concluding Reflections on American Decline
Richard Cincotta Moderated – Will Aging Cripple the West? Will It Cripple China’s Development?
- The Week Ahead: Population Aging to 2030
- Population Aging: a Demographic and Geographic Overview
- Population Aging: More Security or Less?
- China and the Challenge of Premature Aging
- The Sun Has Yet to Set on China
- Population Aging and the Welfare State in Europe
- Population Aging and the Future of NATO
- The Beginning of History: Advanced Aging and the Liberalness of Democracies
- The Strategic Implications of Japan’s Demographic Decline
- A Demographic Sketch of a Reunified Korea in 2030
- The Impact of Immigration on the Populations of the Developed World and their Ethnic Composition
- The Ethnic Future of Western Europe to 2030
- Population Aging to 2030: End of a Week
Ralph Espach is Moderated – Brazil’s Future Role in the International System
- Brazil on the Rise?
- Brazil’s Social and Industrial Policies: The Korean Path, or the Venezuelan Cliff?
- Brazil as a World Power Beyond 2030: Geographic, Economic and Military Dimensions
Allan Dafoe Moderated – Will the Long Peace Persist?
- Will the Long Peace Persist?
- The Arc of War
- The Hazards of Forecasting
- World War III?
- International Economic Institutions and Great Power Peace
- Doubting the Decline of Great Power War Thesis
- Great Power War to 2030
- The Long Peace: Systematic Trends and Unknown Unknowns
- A short Comment on the Long Peace – Part 1
- Developmental Peace as a Piece of the Long Peace – Part 2
- War and Peace Among the Rest – Part 3
- The Not So Long Peace?
Richard Engel (from the National Intelligence Council) Posted – Climate Change 2030: More Extreme Weather
Howard Passell Moderated – Will Mega-Cities be a Cauldron for Revolution or Be an Engine for Technological Revolutions?
- Week Schedule and Author Bios for Mega-Cities
- Will Mega-Cities be a Cauldron for Revolution or an Engine for Technological Revolutions?
- Can We Predict which Mega-Cities are Most Vulnerable to Epidemics?
- The Wealth and Power Nexus: Will Mega-Cities Revolutionize Global Governance?
- Urban Fragility and Global Mega-Cities
- Alpha-Cities, Mega-Slums and Tomorrow’s Revolutions
- Urbanization and Climate Change
Cung Vu Moderated – Will Shale Gas Give a Second Burst to US Manufacturing?
Cotton requires a tremendous amount of water to be grown, organic cotton is no different. GMO derived textiles are not the future either. Will or will not ” Corn complete with cotton for investment”?The new green is not yellow ! WE have abundance of natural fiber alternatives Flax, Hemp, Ramie, wools, none of which require pesticides , herbicides or are GMO derived. Remember viscose is not natural , it is man made !
BY my humble opinion, this report shows two key patterns and is probably a combination of the two. You can decide which is the stronger influence:
Pattern 1) It is a smart, verging on brilliant, piece of subtle scare/shock writing/dogma/pro-national PR, designed to ensure the continuing socio-economic-political trends of the past 20-30+ years. You get an A++ for your very professional communications design. Nice China cooperation scenario boosting, but a bit overtly obvious.
Pattern 2) Shocking gaps in the “Black Swan” and other key scenarios decry both a planned negation of some scenarios for security and other purposes, while also exhibiting a somewhat shallow naivete’, regarding the “ground-level” realities around the world. Some of the “gaps” would understandably not be mentioned for national and international security purposes but others show a possible detrimental naivete’/Cultural ignorance/detail-related-domino-effect-ignorance and an overall lack of realism regarding the “other” State and Non-State players in the new great game(s) of the 21st century.
This report in some ways shows significant Intelligence weaknesses in the US Intelligence establishment and the decades old, dangerous, dumbing-down for the actual Policy makers, which did not work well in the Iraq debacle and will fare far worse in larger global issues in the coming decades. But very well done word-smithing and communications design.
Perhaps you find it too disturbing to believe that this might be an honest assessment of the state of the world by the NIC?
If the world was so simple I would agree with the assessment, but there are worse scenarios than what is mentioned and what is disturbing is that I honestly think it is not on the NIC radar. There are western-centric and economic-centric blind-spots which run so deep in the report, that they become precursors to Black Swan scenarios.
Also this naive impression that as long as the economy “grows”, everything else will fall into place is ridiculous. Also the impression that “more middle class” equals a happier country is also a myth.
To this date of my life, the “happiest” and “healthiest” humans and families of humans I have ever seen, were NOT Middle Class or Upper Class. This concept of the “poverty line” is not really accurate in some countries. There are millions of incredibly HAPPY “poor” people around the world actually…but maybe less and less………
Have you been to China? Brazil??? I think Nigeria has also been a “booming economy”, oh yes and we can’t forget India….You really have to see, smell, taste and touch these places to really understand just how serious it is.
The biggest myth is that “Free Capitalism” is the “new” savior for the world.
Capitalism has always been around and has always been “free”, as long as the Mongols, Persians, Greeks, Romans etc… were getting their taxes…they rarely kill the economies…. Just read the Periplus of the Erythian Sea from around 60AD. There was so much trade in 300 BC that in India they were minting fake Greek coins. Even Alexander was following very old trade routes all the way to Bactria and the Indo-HellenicPersian culture, before and during the Romans was and still is in some ways, thriving trade-wise. Even the entire Iron Age from c800BC to Rome is an example of a “free-market” Capitalist society from the Celtic Isles and Gaul to China, through Rome and Persia etc…Slaves, spices Gold etc…
There has ALWAYS been “Capitalism”. Humans have ALWAYS “capitalized” on each other and if you want to see full-on, free-market Capitalism, then visit today Nigeria, India, Mexico, Manila…..cities who have been “developed” and economically successful for centuries and in the case of India, for 3,000 years and “booming” for the past 2,500 years(minus droughts and the British paraste phase,…Rome was sending 250 ships a year to India…Pepper and Cinnamon, gems, Gold, Fabrics etc….!!!… and that isn’t even the Chinese and Arab ships..
But actually, things have changed in India, After 3,000 years of successful farming in India, now people are dieing from kidney diseases from over-use of pesticides, which are pushed because it makes the agri corporations more “economically prosperous”..15,000 farmers have committed suicide by going into debt and losing farms that went back centuries++..after nevr having to get a loan for 3,000 years……meanwhile, the bees, which pollinate/fertilize 33% of the global food supply are dying significantly and now the evidence is in this week, check your open-source intelligence, it is the excessive build-up of the pesticides in the soil, where the bees hibernate in the winter and soak up the poisons, which the regulators didn’t consider, despite the data being there……Frogs too are dying out..
There are better ways to do things which still make your nation prosperous, your corporations(actually, their Shareholders, the CEOs have no choice) are brutes, but no worse than any other country, the Europeans are aggressive, but so is everybody – which is why the “developing world” decided that full-on unrestrained Capitalism, was working well for the past 3,000+ years, so why stop now???
in the developing world, the “poverty” is instrumental to the upper 10%s way of life, their “freedom” (to have luxury and servants, cheap prostitutes etc..), and high profit margins..and the US too, which is why the masquerades zone9very scary place actually..) has been so busy for 3-4 decades, instead of giving jobs to kids in Chicago, Baltimore, Detroit or Denver, New Orleans..but it allowed you to flood the corn market, but still, the many factory jobs might have spread the wealth in the US better..,… so I guess it was worth it ….Or EA games setting up Manila 3D artist studios for their games… …… It has nothing to do with “developing”,…maybe “undeveloped ethics”…….In a country like Uganda, for much of the 90s, they could have stopped Joseph Kony in the early 90s, when he began but the South controls the country and it is better to keep the North unstable and they have always had a large enough military to deal with this 500-1200 man/child poorly trained jungle militia… Likewise in Sudan, it was always better to keep the South unstable and powerless. It works. Keep the populace “undeveloped” and they will be less trouble…
My point is that brute, unethical Capitalism has always been around and should be nothing to be proud of. Ethical Capitalism(which includes ethical regulation of the economy and economic practices…) is what has been lost in the West.
BUT this brute mentality, which has crept back into the American, UK (never left them..) and Canadian Oligarchical psyche over the past 30 years, simply reverts you back to where the “rest” always have been (and still is). In a high state of hyper-capitalism as opposed to ethical-capitalism.
It also creates other blind spots which are related to this base-type of human social parasitism mentality and that is one of the things which will bite you on the ass in the end. India is now coming up to theirs I think. Pakistan too. Maybe China…juries out on that one..
I don’t blame the ‘corporations”, the CEOs and CFOs have no choice or to be sued, if they do not follow the corporate clauses of the corporation’s constitution and the constitution usually orders them to “maximize profits”,
It is the Shareholders, who program these mega-machines and blindly order them to “increase” profits regardless of consequences and now that many of the shareholders are hedge funds and pensions etc… there is now a very concrete, almost complete “separation of human ethics and human conscience” from the ground-level practices of the typical large corporation….
Teddy Roosevelt, whom I respect a lot, tried to sound the alarm and I think it saved the small local economy structures of the west for much of the 20th century…didn’t really stop the big monopolies, but he was a great man to try…very brave…, Carnegie also helped create a good example 9wrote The Gospel Of Wealth in the 1890s) against human social parasitism and economic parasitism but that is mostly gone now and Dwight D. Eisenhower also tried to sound the alarm,
Anyway, if the issues in the report were the only ones, I would not be worried or disturbed at all…:) But the worst dangers are due to significant blind spots, which are prevalent in the report.
I would love to read the publication, but I find it impossible to down load. Too bad your IT people aren’t as advanced as the document, since it sounds extremely informative.
Excellent initiative. I have written one book A Citizen’s manifesto and the other one Moving On is ready for publication. Please see my blog mikerana/wordpress.com.
I wouldl ike to read the details in your articles /books
how do I get a copy of the report when published?